What is each pick worth to the cap?
The trade-value chart prices picks by career AV. This page prices them by surplus over the rookie deal: the open-market AAV a player’s career outcome would command, minus what the rookie wage scale charged you. Positional impact is layered on as a small multiplier — premium positions (QB, edge, OT, WR, CB) get a bump; commodity positions (RB, ST) get a discount. This is the lens that actually drives roster construction.
Smoothed average surplus ($M / year) at each overall pick #1–262, across 11 settled classes (2011–2021). The zero line is break-even on the rookie deal — picks above it returned more value than they cost; picks below were money-losers on average.
- Y axis: the typical annual surplus a pick at this slot returned. +$10M / yr means the average player drafted there generated $10M more in market value per year than the rookie deal cost.
- Above zero = the rookie deal was a bargain on average. Below zero= the average pick at that slot didn’t earn back the rookie cost (busts dragged the mean down).
- The drop: the steeper this curve falls, the bigger the gap between early and late picks in cap-room terms. A flat curve would mean Day 3 picks are just as valuable per dollar as the top of round 1.
- vs. the trade-value chart: that chart prices picks by raw career AV produced. This one prices them by surplus over the rookie deal — which is what GMs are actually buying when they trade up.
Hover / tap to see per-pick numbers. Surplus = (vet market AAV at outcome tier) − (rookie AAV at this pick), weighted by position.
Mean weighted surplus per cell. Cells use the position’s own accent color when surplus is positive and switch to red when surplus is negative; opacity scales with magnitude. Watch how the picture inverts vs. the AV-based heatmap on /positional: RB cells fade, late-round OL and DB cells stay strong, and QB cells dominate the top of the table.
- Each cell is a position × round combination. The number is the mean weighted surplus AAV ($M / year) across every pick made at that combo since 2011.
- Color = sign of the surplus. Positive cells are tinted with the position’s own accent color (the same color used in the row label) — so each row reads as its own monochrome ramp. Red cells = negative surplus on average (busts dragged the mean below zero).
- Opacity = magnitude, normalized within each position row. A faded cell means small (or zero) surplus; a vivid cell means a big number. The scale resets per row, so dim positions (QB, TE) read fairly against common ones (OL, DB).
- Read across a rowto see how that position’s ROI erodes from round 1 to round 7. Steep erosion = the position is hard to find late. Slow erosion = depth available.
- Read down a column to see which positions are best spent at a given round. R1: QB / OL / DL dominate. R5–R7: RB and ST can flip red-negative; OL / DB still hit cheaply.
- Tap a cell to see its top earner — the pick at that position × round combo with the highest weighted surplus.
← swipe · Position color = positive surplus · Red = negative · opacity scales within each row · tap a cell for its top earner
n = 3838 picks · 2011–2025 · settled window 2011–2021 · 2024-anchor dollars · smoothing ±5 picks